Groundwater salinisation is one of the major problems associated with sea level rise, yet it is a problem which has been overseen for a long time by society and decision makers, as it is a phenomenon that is progressing comparatively slow and its impacts only unfold with a strong delay due to the sluggish nature of sub-surface flow. Hence, it is a problem that may be classified as a “creeping catastrophy” posing challenges to a better understanding of the problem dimensions as well as for the development of societal responses. It is crucial to understand the vulnerability of groundwater systems to rising sea levels following climate change and to understand the primary factors that determine the magnitude of system response to develop effective management and adaptation strategies in coastal zones. The project will aim at identifying the response of the coastal aquifers along the entire German Bight to sea level rise in the North Sea based on predictions from the SPP SeaLevel. For this purpose, large scale regional numerical variable density groundwater flow and transport modelling will be applied. Moreover, socio-economic consequences of the predicted groundwater salinisation will be investigated in order to assess abatement options. A particular focus will lie on perceptions, knowledge and learning processes of relevant societal actors as well as costs of adaptation options.  The objectives of the proposed research are related to the general objectives of the SPP “to determine the natural and social coastal systems responses to future sea level change”, and “to assess strategies to adapt to sea level change under given technical, economic, cultural, social and political constraints”.

https://www.spp-sealevel.de/

Ecological Economics, University of Oldenburg

Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG)

November 2016 - October 2019

Dr. Stephan Seibert

Dr. Janek Greskowiak

Karrasch, L., Siebenhüner, B., Seibert, S.L., 2023. Groundwater salinization in northwestern Germany: A case of anticipatory governance in the field of climate adaptation?. Earth System Governance, 17, p.100179. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esg.2023.100179

Seibert, S.L., Greskowiak, J., Bungenstock, F., Freund, H., Karle, M., Meyer, R., Oude Essink, G.H.P., Van Engelen, J., Massmann, G., 2023. Paleo-Hydrogeological Modeling to Understand Present-Day Groundwater Salinities in a Low-Lying Coastal Groundwater System (Northwestern Germany). Water Resources Research, 59(4). https://doi.org/10.1029/2022WR033151